What is Variance at Completion (VAC)?
Variance at Completion is the projected difference between the original budget and the forecast final cost — the size of the surprise you're steering toward. Negative means an overrun is coming; positive means you expect to finish under budget.
VAC turns EVM from a scorecard into an early-warning system: it quantifies the problem while there's still time to act on it.
Formula
VAC = BAC − EAC
Worked example
BAC = $100,000, EAC = $120,500. VAC = −$20,500: the project is forecast to finish $20,500 over budget. Negative VAC means overrun.