What is Monte Carlo Simulation?
Monte Carlo simulation is a quantitative risk technique that runs a project model thousands of times with randomized inputs, producing a probability distribution of outcomes instead of a single-point estimate — "an 80% chance of finishing under $1.2M" rather than "it'll cost $1.1M."
On the exam, it belongs to quantitative risk analysis and appears whenever a scenario asks for confidence levels on dates or budgets, or for sizing contingency reserves realistically.
Worked example
Instead of one finish date, the model runs the schedule 10,000 times with each task duration varying across its range. Output: "70% probability of finishing by June 15; 90% by July 2." Commit to a date with confidence attached.